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Part C: Multi-Year Budget Forecast

Part C: Multi-Year Budget Forecast

The Multi-Year Operating Budget model starts with 2017/18 Budget as the base and consistently applies assumptions used in developing the 2018/19 Operating Budget. It incorporates revenue expectations respecting the government’s current policy on the tuition rate framework and the government corridor funding formula for grants, the University’s enrolment plan, and projections. Inflationary factors have been added to departmental and institutional costs, however, strategic investment assumptions have not been included in future years. The projected net revenue from Milton has not been included. The assumptions in the Multi-Year Budget forecast include the following:

Revenue

  • Current corridor funding system remains in place over the period, including the current midpoint. What changes over time are the number of domestic undergraduate (UG) students accepted to meet upper limits of the corridor at steady state.
  • Domestic tuition rates were held at the current tuition framework:
    • UG domestic forecast based on 2018/19 average rate + 3% year-over-year increase.
    • Graduate tuition fees (Domestic) held at 3% year-over-year increase.
  • International tuition fees held at 5% year-over-year increase (UG/GR).
  • Other revenue and other grant remain at same level as 2018/19.

Salary and Benefits

  • Full/Part-Time Faculty–adjusted to 99% spending of 2017/18 Budget (based on 2016/17 actual results).
  • Full/Part-Time Staff–adjusted to 97% spending of 2017/18 Budget (based on 2016/17 actual results).
  • Salary increases forecasted at expected rates based on previous agreements.
  • No change to pension service cost/pension deficiency.

Direct Cost of Teaching

Not included as enrolment is modelled as flat.

Departmental and Institutional

  • No new Strategic Investments included in future years (i.e. investments found within existing/reallocated budget to meet priorities).
  • 2% inflation on departmental expenses.
  • 1% inflation on institutional expenses.

In preparing the multi-year model, certain assumptions and estimates were necessary. The assumptions and estimates are based on information available to management at the time of preparing the 2018/19 Operating Budget. Users of this information are cautioned that actual results may vary.

The following table provides a very high level overview of the Operating Budget forecast over the next five years.

Multi-Year Operating Budget Model (in 000's)
Description 2018/18
Budget		 2019/20
Forecast		 2020/21
Forecast		 2021/22
Forecast		 2022/23
Forecast		 2023/24
Forecast
Tuition fees 175,680 183,326 190,428 191,093 196,292 202,924
Operating grant
(net of ISR)		 100,319 100,319 100,319 100,319 100,319 100,319
Other grants 2,815 2,815 2,815 2,815 2,815 2,815
Other income 21,723 21,723 21,723 21,723 21,723 21,723
Revenue total 300,537 308,183 315,285 315,951 321,149 327,781
Salary and benefit
expenses		 225,060 226,408 232,311 238,391 244,653 251,104
Departmental
expenses		 51,889 51,600 52,632 53,684 54,758 55,853
Institutional
expenses		 24,076 22,802 23,030 23,261 23,493 23,728
Total expenses 301,025 300,810 307,973 315,336 322,905 330,685
Surplus/(Deficit) (488) 7,374 7,313 615 (1,755) (2,904)

Note: Milton revenue/expenses not included.

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